Archive for February 24th, 2011

Foreclosures Tripled in Idaho since 2008-Really?!

I love when my local newspaper gives me something to write about! The Idaho Statesman so consistently gives half a story I wonder how they get away printing them as news.

If you happened to catch the article about Foreclosure sales having tripled in Idaho, let me give you the “rest of the story” as Paul Harvey used to say.

This article compares foreclosed property sales (bank owned)  in 2008 with 2010 in Idaho. Well, duh, there was an increase in foreclosed properties!  Let me show you the numbers to better illustrate the “duh” moment:

2008 ADA County

Total Sold: 5359

Short Sale: 253

Foreclosed/Bank Owned: 0

———-

2009 ADA County

Total Sold: 5752

Short Sale: 852

Foreclosed/Bank Owned: 1205

———-

2010 ADA County

Total Sold: 6254

Short Sale: 1066

Foreclosed/Bank Owned: 1866

Observe the Foreclosed number in 2008(and no, I was not making an emoticon face there!).  That’s right! It was zero! This is not a shocker because short sales were just getting started with the housing market decline that did not officially start until late 2007. Therefore foreclosed properties would not start for another 6 months at least. So to compare 2008 to 2010, the article might as well have compared 2003 with 2010 and they would have had the same outcome.

But look carefully at all the sold numbers, because this is the good news. In 2008, 5359 homes sold and in 2010, 6254 homes sold. That is a pretty significant increase. So how come the article did not highlight this aspect? 

But here are some even more interesting numbers to me that give me hope that the market truly is turning around:

January 2008- ADA County

Total Sold: 324

Short Sale: 44

Foreclosed/Bank Owned: 0

———

January 2009 – ADA County

Total Sold: 245

Short Sale : 30

Foreclosed/Bank Owned: 14

———

January 2010 – ADA County

Total Sold: 305

Short Sale: 60

Foreclosed/Bank Owned: 101

————

January 2011 – ADA County

Total Sold: 381

Short Sale: 69

Foreclosed/Bank Owned: 150

Look carefully at the Sold numbers.  January 2011 had 381 solds while January 2008 had 324.  Yes, more than half of the homes sold in January 2010 and 2011 are distressed properties but these two years reflect the mortgage and housing collapse of 2008.

Two sold numbers that I find promising are the total in 2010 and the January 2011.  We have increased sales and a shrinking inventory which will help lead us back to a healthy balance in the real estate market.

One more item in the article that always makes me crazy is the talk of “shadow inventory” that has not been put on the market yet. This is fear mongering plain and simple. This “shadow inventory being dumped on the market” theory has been around for a few years now.

 Two things about this theory: One, the banks are not going to dump all their inventory at one time. They are already discounting their properties well below market value so to dump them all at once would further devalue their properties. Two, you can consider all homes that are not on the market as shadow inventory. My house, your house and anyone else who has not put their house up for sale are technically “shadow inventory”!

Please note that these statistics are based on Single family and Single family with acreage in ADA County from the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service.

If you would like additional statistics for the Boise Real Estate market area please go to my website: http://www.BoiseRealEstateChick.com

Article referenced: Foreclosure sales in Idaho have tripled since 2008; Joe Estrella; Idaho Statesman.com 2/24/2011

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